The consumer price index CPI is the change in the price of a basket of goods and services. Put in simple terms, CPI measures inflation. This is one of the highest impact news releases because as we said above, the main mandate for central bank policy is to control inflation. The basket contains a fixed set of products and services based on average consumer habits that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has collected. The highest impact CPI news release comes out monthly, but due to its importance, the data is also compiled into quarterly and yearly readings.
As central banks such as the Fed use the CPI number to track inflation, there is a direct relationship between CPI and interest rate policy. The US gross domestic product number is released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, on a quarterly basis. As GDP is released at wide intervals, the bureau also releases preliminary figures at the end of each month. While a central bank such as the Federal Reserve would never make a final interest rate decision on GDP alone, it does still serve as evidence used to base decisions around.
The same can be said for a GDP number in decline, signaling an economic slow-down that could require rates to be cut. Sometimes the unpredictable nature of the society we live in means things happen, things that move markets. This section encompasses all other high impact Forex news releases that you may or may not find on your economic calendar.
Important Examples: Political speeches, central banker speeches, terrorist attacks How often: Sporadic. An example may be the US president stepping up to the microphone at a campaign rally for an off-the-cuff announcement of an economic stimulus package.
This has the potential to send the US Dollar soaring as fiscal policy affects demand. Another more sober example, is a terrorist attack. If a bomb goes off in a busy underground station, panic soon spreads to markets as traders price in the probability of economic slowdowns and the uncertainty of war. F: Company Authors Contact. Long Short. Oil - US Crude. Wall Street. More View more. View more videos. Top Trading Opportunities in 2Q Our analysts share their forecasts for forex, commodities and indices.
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Bank of Japan BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda noted in the early hours of Thursday at a parliament session that his financial institution could implement a smooth phasing-out of its ultra-dovish monetary policy, albeit a tasking undertaking.
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Years back, he became passionate about blockchain technology and cryptocurrency through his sister and has since been following the market wave. Entry price level for every signal Just choose one of our Top Brokers in the list above to get all this free. Aside from Russia, plenty of other smaller mostly African producers have struggled to keep up with output quota hikes in recent months.
Elsewhere, the situation in China is less of a concern as of late. Though Beijing remains in lockdown, restrictions in Shanghai are soon set to be lifted and further improvement could provide further tailwinds for crude oil prices next week.
Typically, these chart patterns precede a bullish breakout. Analysts at Credit Suisse now look for a turn back lower from here. Given both our bullish USD and bearish GBP view, we have a high level of conviction that the market will fail here and see an eventual resumption of the core downtrend.
Below here open up next support at 1. Meanwhile, the Consumer Expectations index was revised lower to The 1-year measure of inflation expectations was also revised lower to 5. The data hasn't triggered a market reaction, but the revision lower to inflation expectations could weigh on the dollar a tad, as it further bolsters the "peak inflation" narrative that is in focus after Core PCE data showed an easing of US price pressures in April earlier in the day.
Extra risks facing TRY also come from the domestic backyard, as inflation gives no signs of abating, real interest rates remain entrenched in negative figures and the political pressure to keep the CBRT biased towards low interest rates remain omnipresent. Constant government pressure on the CBRT vs. Bouts of geopolitical concerns.
Structural reforms. So far, the pair is losing 0. On the upside, the initial hurdle lines up at The pair was last trading in the 0. The pair is eyeing a test of monthly highs in the 0. Lifting the mood in recent trade and also somewhat weighing on the US dollar was US Core PCE inflation data for April that lent support to the idea that price pressures in the US have peaked, thus reducing the pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy quite so aggressively.
But the kiwi has also derived support from domestic New Zealand factors this week, which go some way in explaining its outperformance versus most of the rest of its non-US dollar G10 peers. The RBNZ raised interest rates by 50 bps to 2. Expectations that the US central could pause the current rate hike cycle later this year dragged the US Treasury bond yields to a multi-week low.
This, along with a generally positive risk tone, undermined the safe-haven US dollar. This, in turn, benefitted the risk-sensitive aussie, which drew additional support from the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish signal earlier this week. From a technical perspective, the recent recovery move from the YTD low along an upward sloping channel points to a well established short-term bullish trend.
A subsequent move beyond the This is closely followed by the very important day SMA, currently around the 0. On the flip side, any meaningful pullback now seems to find decent support near the 0. Spot prices could then test the Failure to defend the aforementioned support levels will shift the bias back in favour of bearish traders. Economists at Scotiatbank believe that cable is unlikely to see a push higher towards the 1. EUR sellers emerge in mid However, economists at Scotiabank expect the pair to inch higher towards the 1.
But the higher highs, higher lows price action suggests gains extending towards 1. Economists at Credit Suisse we look for a turn back lower from here, for a move to 1. We expect a much tougher barrier here and for the medium-term downtrend to reassert itself from here and we therefore now turn tactically bearish again. Gold is currently on course to post a weekly gain of about 0.
The latest US inflation data will come as a relief to the Fed and takes away some of the pressure to raise interest rates back to neutral around 2. Though markets still expect 50 bps rate moves at the next two meetings June and July , the argument for what would be a fourth successive 50 bps hike in September is somewhat diminished. Meanwhile, if inflation continues to ease back from current levels in the months ahead, the Fed will feel more at ease in pausing rate hikes once it gets back to neutral and reassessing the need for further tightening.
These will be key themes in the weeks ahead. The upcoming preliminary release of the May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey at GMT will be worth watching for a timely read on how well the US consumer is holding up. Indeed, the pair now exchanges gains with losses amidst the equally lack of a clear direction in the greenback, which managed to bounce off new monthly lows near As usual, price action in spot should reflect dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns and the Fed-ECB divergence.
Occasional pockets of strength in the single currency, however, should appear reinforced by speculation the ECB could raise rates at some point in the summer, while higher German yields, elevated inflation and a decent pace of the economic recovery in the region are also supportive of an improvement in the mood around the euro.
Eminent issues on the back boiler : Speculation of the start of the hiking cycle by the ECB as soon as this summer. Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro area. So far, spot is losing 0. On the other hand, the immediate hurdle aligns at 1.
The data indicated that inflationary pressures in the US might be easing and reaffirmed the idea that the US central could pause the current rate hike cycle later this year. This was evident from the recent slump in the US Treasury bond yields to a multi-week low, which, along with the risk-on impulse, weighed on the safe-haven US dollar.
Bulls seemed rather unimpressed and largely shrugged off modest pullback in crude oil prices, which tend to undermine the commodity-linked loonie. The MoM pace of inflation according to the index came in at 0. Elsewhere, Personal Incomes rose at a pace of 0. Personal Spending, meanwhile, grew at a pace of 0. The broadly in line with expectations inflation data has not triggered much of a market reaction just yet. Biden had reportedly hoped to make the announcement as soon as this weekend, though this has been delayed in light of the recent massacre in Texas.
The timing of the relief isn't clear, but would mark a massive fiscal injection that critics might argue could make the Fed's inflation-fighting job harder. Analysts increasingly believe that inflation in the US might have now peaked, and might well ease back over the remainder of the year, thus allowing the Fed to pause its rate hikes once it gets back to neutral around 2.
The upcoming data will thus be viewed in the context of whether it supports or pushes back against this narrative. Minutes from the May FOMC meeting released on Wednesday suggested that the Fed could pause the rate hike cycle after two 50 bps hikes each in June and July amid the worsening economic outlook. Apart from this, a modest USD rebound from a fresh monthly low helped limit any further losses, at least for the time being, though any meaningful recovery still seems elusive.
Traders will further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities on the last day of the week. European Union nations are reportedly working on a Russia oil sanction deal that could be signed at next week's EU Council Summit that would exclude oil delivered into the EU via pipelines, two EU officials told Reuters. Bloomberg had reported something similar earlier in the day.
The exclusion of oil delivered by pipelines is designed to win over the approval of landlocked nations such as Hungary, who have thus far pushed back against plans for a broad EU ban on Russian oil imports. Leaders of EU 27 nations will be meeting on May and any EU sanction plan must get unanimous approval from all nations.
But analysts have also attributed a few domestic UK factors as lending support to the rebound. Some analysts said that this larger than expected injection of fiscal stimulus which will be spread over the summer and autumn might encourage the BoE to revise higher its very pessimistic UK growth forecasts for this year and next. Still, FX strategists continue to warn that the UK growth outlook remains far weaker than in the US, meaning the outlook for BoE policy is far less hawkish than the outlook at the Fed.
The headline gauge is expected to hold steady at a 6. The core reading, however, is anticipated to have eased to 4. A better figure means more rate hikes and a stronger dollar, while a weak figure implies the global economy is weakening — sending investors to the safety of the world's reserve currency.
Initial support is located at 1. As long as the pair manages to end the week above 1. The Personal Spending released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce is an indicator that measures the total expenditure by individuals. The level of spending can be used as an indicator of consumer optimism.
It is also considered as a measure of economic growth: While Personal spending stimulates inflationary pressures, it could lead to raise interest rates. A high reading is positive or Bullish for the USD. That said, the next up barrier now appears at the day SMA, today at 1. The breakout of this area should mitigate the selling pressure and allow for a probable move to the weekly high at 1.
Nagel warned that it may take some time for inflation to fall in the Eurozone. Earlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde outlined new interest rate guidance in a blog post, where she indicated taking Eurozone interest rates back into positive territory by the end of the third quarter.
Thus Nagel's views seem to be well aligned with Lagarde's. The breakdown of the May low at While above this area, further gains in the very near term in the dollar should remain well on the table. The longer-term positive outlook for the index is seen constructive while above the day SMA at The succession of higher lows since mid-May leaves the prospects for further upside well on the table for the time being. That said, while above the 2-month support line near In the meantime, while above the day SMA at The bright metal is looking to retest the two-week highs on the road to recovery, as the US dollar is struggling to recover further ground amid mixed market sentiment and subdued Treasury yields.
Gold sellers will then target the intersection of the SMA four-hour, pivot point one-month S1 and the Fibonacci The TCD Technical Confluences Detector is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.
If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size. The spot is still up 0. Bulls are now looking to build on the momentum beyond the 0. Signs that the Fed could pause the rate hike cycle after two 50 bps hikes each in June and July amid the worsening economic outlook, along with the risk-on impulse continued weighing on the safe-haven US dollar.
Apart from this, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hit at even higher rates going forward further benefitted the risk-sensitive kiwi. Looking at the broader technical picture, the recent recovery from the YTD low has been along an upward sloping channel. This points to a well-established short-term bullish trend and supports prospects for additional gains.
Some follow-through buying beyond the aforementioned 0. The momentum could further get extended towards the next relevant hurdle near the 0. On the flip side, any meaningful pullback below the 0. This is followed by the A weekly close above 1. Crude oil prices held steady near a two-month high and continued underpinning the commodity-linked loonie. Apart from this, the prevalent bearish sentiment surrounding the US dollar exerted downward pressure on the major.
Despite worries about softening global economic growth, expectations of demand recovery in China and the impending European Union embargo on Russian oil imports extended support to the black liquid. This added to supply concerns and acted as a tailwind for oil.
On the other hand, the USD was pressured by speculations that the Fed could pause the rate hike cycle later this year amid the worsening economic outlook. Doubt over the Fed's ability to bring inflation under control without sinking the economy into recession dragged the yield on the benchmark year US government bond fell to a six-week low. This, along with the risk-on impulse, weighed on the safe-haven greenback. Hence, some follow-through decline, towards testing the day SMA, currently around the 1.
From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, 1Q22 GDP rose 0. The upward revision is in line with our call for GDP to grow at 3. The spot is off the lows, tracking the recovery in the US dollar across its main peers. The downside in the major also appears capped amid a minor bounce in the US Treasury yields and positive European equities. Note that the latest slew of US macro data has not been very encouraging and has collaborated with the downside in the buck.
If the latter gives way on a sustained basis, then a test of the wedge lower boundary at The day Relative Strength Index RSI is inching lower below the midline, suggesting that there is scope for additional weakness going forward. Daily closing above that hurdle will confirm a falling wedge breakout, recalling buyers for a fresh run towards the downward-pointing DMA at Ahead of that upside target, the The Australian dollar continued drawing support from the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish signal that a bigger interest rate hike is still possible in June amid the upside risks to inflation.
Apart from this, the prevalent US dollar selling bias provided an additional boost to the major and contributed to the ongoing bullish move. The FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday suggested that the Fed could pause the rate hike cycle after two 50 bps hikes each in June and July amid the worsening economic outlook. This, in turn, dragged the yield on the benchmark year US government bond fell to a six-week low, which, along with the risk-on impulse, weighed heavily on the buck.
Meanwhile, the intraday move up pushed spot prices beyond the 0. Hence, a subsequent strength, towards reclaiming the 0. The momentum could further get extended to the day SMA, around the 0. Gold is trending sideways. Economists at Commerzbank note that the yellow metal is not attracting the attention of investors with risk flows dominating the financial markets. The pair gained positive traction for the third successive day on Friday - also marking the sixth day of a positive move in the previous seven - and confirmed a bullish breakout through the 1.
The momentum pushed spot prices to the highest level since April 26 and was sponsored by the prevalent US dollar selling bias. Doubt over the Fed's ability to bring inflation under control without sinking the economy into recession led to an extension of the recent decline in the US Treasury bond yields.
In fact, the yield on the benchmark year US government bond fell to a six-week low, which, along with the risk-on impulse, dragged the USD to a fresh one month low. That said, diminishing odds for any further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and the UK-EU impasse over Northern Ireland acted as a headwind for the British pound.
With risk flows dominating the financial markets on Thursday, Wall Street's main indexes registered impressive gains and the dollar continued to lose interest. Although the market mood seems to have turned cautious early Friday, the US Dollar Index trades at its lowest level in a month near the mid Earlier in the day, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said they were expecting Russia's oil production to decline to million tonnes this year from million tonnes in Bloomberg reported on Friday that Chinese Premier Li Keqiang warned of dire consequences if they fail to prevent the economy from sliding further and noted that a contraction in the second quarter must be avoided.
Meanwhile, the US and Taiwan are reportedly planning to announce economic talks to deepen their ties, which could be seen as a factor that could cause US-China geopolitical tensions to escalate. The pair remains on track to close the second straight week in positive territory. The data from Australia showed that Retail Sales rose by 0. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda noted on Friday that they are not expecting prices to rise sustainably unless accompanied by wage hikes.
Gold struggled to gather bullish momentum on Thursday as the benchmark year US Treasury bond yield continued to move up and down near 2. Gold built on the overnight bounce from the very important day SMA support and edged higher on the last day of the week. The US dollar prolonged its recent bearish trend and dropped to a fresh one-month low on Friday, which, in turn, benefitted the dollar-denominated gold.
The speculations were further fueled by Thursday's release of the Prelim US GDP report, which showed that the world's largest economy contracted by a 1. This was seen as a key factor that exerted downward pressure on the buck. Meanwhile, doubt over the Fed's ability to bring inflation under control without sinking the economy into recession continued dragging the US Treasury bond yields lower.
In fact, the yield on the benchmark year US government bond fell to a six-week low, which further undermined the greenback and offered additional support to the non-yielding gold. That said, a positive turnaround in the global risk sentiment - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - could act as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal.
This might hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets. This, along with the US bond yields will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to gold. Apart from this, traders will take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities on the last day of the week. So far, spot is gaining 0. On the other hand, a breach of 1. Risk appetite remains sluggish during early Friday in Europe as market players struggle for fresh impulses.
However, the Euro Stoxx 50 Futures register an advance of 0. On the same line are the fears of global economic slowdown, mainly due to covid-led lockdown in China and the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Also important will be the Fedspeak and the geopolitical headlines concerning China and Russia. The dollar is set to face a second consecutive week of losses against all G10 currencies. However, economists at ING think that the combination of a material improvement in the global risk environment and further USD-adverse widening of short-term rate differentials is unlikely, and therefore expect the dollar to find a floor soon.
Hungarian forint has hit the weakest levels since the beginning of March. Economists at ING note that the pair could reach its highest level in history if the central bank does not hike rates next week. However, this is far from certain. Thus, market disappointment may lead to further forint weakening to the level, which would be the weakest in history. Thus, we are negative on the forint in the short-term, but we continue to monitor headlines that should unlock the hidden potential of the forint in the second half of the year.
Asked if it would be a one percentage point impact, he said: "Much, much less than that. Asked about a possible windfall tax on electricity generators, "What we want to do and we are going to do urgently is understand the scale of those profits, and then decide on the appropriate next steps.
The pair is currently trading at 1. In the view of economists at ING, the bar to trigger further hawkish repricing in the Bank of England BoE rate expectation curve is quite elevated, Subsequently, the British pound is set to face some pressure from the short-term rate differential side.
A consolidation around 0. However, economists at ING expect the pair to move back lower towards the 1. However, a two-week-long symmetrical triangle restricts the immediate moves of the quote. Will US Treasury yields move higher? Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy for Morgan Stanley, forecasts an inverted yield curve at year-end with two-year Treasury yields reaching 3.
At the end of the year, they see the Fed funds target range at 2. With inflation remaining high and growth slowing, discussions of stagflation or outright recession should continue to lead investor debate this year. And ultimately, that should limit the degree to which Treasury yields rise into year-end.
The index accelerates losses and breaks below the The dollar extends the weekly leg lower and threatens to put the In the meantime, a tighter rate path by the Federal Reserve looks more and more priced in, while the elevated inflation narrative and the tight labour market seem to still support further upside in the dollar in the longer run. Escalating geopolitical effervescence vs.
Russia and China. US-China trade conflict. Now, the index is retreating 0. On the flip side, the breakout of They note that risk sentiment is the latest driver for the greenback. Considering advanced prints from CME Group for natural gas futures markets, open interest dropped for the second straight session on Thursday, now by around Volume, instead, rose for the second session in a row, this time by around That daily performance was amidst shrinking open interest, leaving the door open to the continuation of the uptrend in the very near term.
Its slide extended to near 1. Economists at Westpac believe that the pair could race higher towards 1. That said, the Swiss currency CHF pair consolidates intraday losses around 0. The focus is on the dollar side of the equation, therefore, the kiwi could enjoy gains as the greenback may have peaked, economists at ANZ Bank report.
However, at the moment they are being overshadowed by growing fears in FX markets of a domestic hard landing and we view that as a potential headwind for the NZD. The odds of upside seem lucrative amid a firmer rebound in the positive market sentiment. The risk-on impulse is underpinning the risk-sensitive assets and the pound bulls are enjoying liquidity at the cost of the yen bulls.
Rising Inflation in the UK area is the major catalyst, which is worrying the pound bulls. The Bank of England BOE is deploying the majority of its quantitative measures to control the soaring inflation. It is worth noting that the BOE raised its interest rate by 25 basis points bps in the first week of May. As per the market consensus, the BOE could feature a jumbo rate hike in its June monetary policy. Considering the galloping inflationary pressures, a rate hike announcement by 50 bps seems highly required.
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is worried over grounded inflation in its region. And BOJ Governor Harihuko Kuroda believes that the dual combo of price rise and wage hike could stable the inflation at desired levels. Volume followed suit and rose markedly by around Gold Price is building on the previous rebound on the final trading day of this week. Meanwhile, the prevalent risk sentiment and the end-of-the-week flows could also influence the gold price action. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida again crossed the wires on Friday, via Reuters, by saying, "Aiming to achieve inflation target with BOJ's monetary easing, government's structural reforms, fiscal policy.
Open interest in gold futures markets shrank for yet another session on Thursday, this time by around 2. In the same line, volume dropped by around Prices of the ounce troy of bullion shed ground for the second straight session on Thursday. The move was accompanied by shrinking open interest and volume, which is indicative that a deeper pullback appears out of favour for the time being. A firmer risk-on impulse in the market has strengthened the pound and the shared currency against the greenback, which has dwindled the market participants in choosing the optimal one.
On a broader note, the shared currency bulls look more confident as the asset has remained positive over the last week. The discussions over the decision of an embargo on oil from Russia have resumed and now Hungary is opposing the Russian oil prohibition amid its higher dependency on fossil fuels and energy from Russia. Well, discussions are still on and its possibility seems sooner now. Inflation is scaling higher in the eurozone and the ECB is still far from its first rate hike after the pandemic.
Dutch Central Bank head and ECB Governing Council member Klass Knot stated on Wednesday, that inflation expectations will remain well-anchored at its upper limit and a rate hike by 50 basis points bps is not off the table. On the pound front, mounting fears of a recession could affect the sterling going forward. The Bank of England BOE has got a laborious task of fixing the inflation mess, which will compel the BOE to remain extremely hawkish on monetary policy for a longer horizon.
That said, the Turkish lira TRY pair stays pressured around Adding to the bearish bias is the overbought RSI condition. Should the quote break the Considering the ongoing weakness in the greenback on a broader note, the asset may find offers soon and will resume its downside journey. The asset is oscillating around critical support of The DXY has printed a fresh monthly low at The Japanese administration is worrying over the anchored price pressures.
In response to that, Bank of Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has commented that the price rise should be accompanied by wage hikes in order to sustain inflation at desired levels. Prices of the three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange LME and the most-traded July copper contract in Shanghai also portray notable gains of late, respectively around 1.
Also weighing on the greenback could be the recently downbeat US data. It should be noted that the latest FOMC Minutes and Fedspeak have both confirmed two 50 bps rate hikes, which the market seems to have already priced and hence allows traders to trigger the month-end profit booking moves of the USD. Though, softer US data may help the red metal to extend the month-end consolidation.
That said, the Loonie pair stays depressed at around 1. Meanwhile, the support-turned-resistance line from late April, near 1. Following that, a two-week-old resistance line and the DMA, respectively around 1. Markets in the Asian domain have rebounded strongly after following positive cues from the Western indices. The risk-on impulse has rebounded firmly and investors are pouring funds into the global equities. Therefore, bulls are enjoying liquidity on a cheerful Friday.
The DXY has refreshed its monthly lows at More downside looks possible considering the soaring market mood. On the oil front, a rebound in fossil fuel prices has been witnessed as the expectations of an embargo on oil from Moscow bolstered. The EU urged Hungary to withdraw its opposition to the prohibition of Russian oil imports.
Earlier, Hungary declined the proposal of a sudden ban on Russian oil amid its higher dependency on its energy requirements from the Kremlin. In doing so, the bullion prices print the first daily gains in three while bracing for the key upside hurdle. Among the risk-negative negative catalysts are headlines suggesting the US-Taiwan ties, which China dislikes.
On the same line are the fears of a global recession. Amid these plays, the US year Treasury yields remained indecisive around 2. The cable has remained in the grip of bulls after hitting the monthly lows at 1. On a four-hour scale, the cable has overstepped Usually, overstepping of Also, the asset holds above the EMA near 1.
A minor pullback move towards the EMA at 1. On the flip side, the greenback bulls could regain control if the asset drops below weekly lows at 1. An occurrence of the same will drag the asset towards Despite the latest jump, the RSI 14 line has some room to the north, which in turn favors buyers.
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