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There were expectations that the BoJ would increase its monetary stimulus. Comments from the influential Mr. Eisuke Sakakibara is pessimistic given the proximity of elections. Next week Japan will continue to be part of a G8 meeting where there could be rumblings of currency intervention. Although with the current state of the Yen this is less likely as the weakening could be unsustainable.
The G8 might have suspected this from the start. Industrial production indicators will be released as well as foreign investment which will give insight on how well Abenomics is working on the real economy and investment. OK, sorry about the bad translingual joke. But I thought it might be interesting to try doing a bit of deductive analysis on the sudden 7 percent plunge in the Nikkei.
One important thing to bear in mind, when it comes to big financial market moves, is that there may be no fundamental explanation at all. As it happened, however, Robert Shiller managed to do a real-time survey as the market was plunging, and found essentially nobody mentioning any of the reasons later given for the selling wave. Instead, everyone said that they were selling because … prices were falling.
Still, to the extent that there is some fundamental story, what clues would we look for? And the answer, surely, is to ask what was happening in other markets, especially bonds and currencies. Let me give you three different stories, each of which could explain a Nikkei plunge:.
Fears about weak Japanese and Asian growth. Fears about Japanese debt— the bond vigilantes have finally arrived. Fears about the resolution of the Bank of Japan, its willingness to persist in very expansionary monetary policy for a long time. All of these imply a fall in stocks; but they have different implications for bond and currency markets. Story 1 should mean a fall in Japanese interest rates, since weaker growth should imply looser money for longer. Many of us have used similar arguments to wave away the claims that debt fears are driving occasional upticks in US rates.
But in this case Japanese interest rates went basically nowhere. Also, it should have meant a weakening in the yen — which actually rose significantly. So, not the bond vigilantes. What about story 3? The impact of expected future monetary policy on long-term interest rates is ambiguous — rates might rise because they expect the BoJ to tighten, or fall because they fear that it will fail to end deflation.
The Bank of Japan BoJ captured the attention of the foreign exchange world last week when it started to live up to the expectations of the market. China and South Korea remain critical of the move, branding it a currency war before the Group of Twenty meeting last February.
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